Monday, November 3, 2014

IOGP Election Guide - Five Races to Watch

Tomorrow is Election Day, and while the midterms lack the drama of a presidential race or hotly-contested statewide offices, there will still be some Utah legislative races to monitor. Here they are:

Five Local Races to Watch

Utah House Congressional District 4: Mia Love (R) vs. Doug Owens (D)
The latest Utah Policy poll (conducted by Dan Jones and Associates) has Mia leading by 48% to 43%, with 6% undecided. Mia is a former Mayor of Saratoga Springs. Doug is an attorney in Salt Lake City and the son of former Utah Congressman Wayne Owens.

Utah Senate District 4 (East SL County): Jani Iwamoto (D) vs. Sabrina Petersen (R)
Senate D4 primarily covers the Millcreek and Holladay areas of Salt Lake County. Incumbent Pat Jones (D) is not running for re-election. In 2012, Sen. Jones took 56% of the vote against the republican’s 43%. Jani Iwamoto is a former member of the Salt Lake County Council and Sabrina Petersen is currently on the Holladay City Council.

House District 31 (West Valley): Rep. Larry Wiley (D) vs. Sophia DiCaro (R)
Rep. Wiley won 50.5% to 49.5% - less than a 1,000 votes – in 2012. Rep. Wiley was first elected to the House in 2008 and currently serves on the House Rules Committee and Natural Resources and Ag Appropriations subcommittee. DiCaro has worked for the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget and Governor’s Office of Economic Development.
House District 44 (Murray): Christine Passey (D) vs. Bruce Cutler (R)
Incumbent Tim Cosgrove (D) is not running for re-election. In 2012, Rep. Cosgrove took 55% of the vote. Cutler has a computer science degree from the Unviersity of Utah and has served on the Murray School Board. Christine has been active in grassroots advocacy, especially for children with autism.
House District 69 (Carbon and Duchesne County): Brad King (D) vs. Bill Labrum (R)
Brad King served in the Utah Legislature from 1997 to 2008, serving in House Minority Leadership during most of that tenure. Brad has recently retired after 33 years working for USU Eastern. Bill Labrum defeated incumbent Jerry Anderson and former legislator Christine Watkins in the 2014 republican primary.
Five National Senate Races to Watch
Currently the U.S. Senate includes 53 Democrats and 45 Republicans with 2 Independent Senators (both caucus with the Democrats). There are a number of Senate races to watch that will be key to determine which party will be in control fo the Senate for the 114th Congress. We’ve highlighted five of these races:
Arkansas: Sen Mark Pryor (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)
Arkansas is becoming more Republican (recently gaining a majority in the General Assembly in 2012), and Sen. Pryor is being challenged by Rep. Cotton, a well-liked congressman from Southern Arkansas. Fivethirtyeight.com polling has Cotton ahead by 5.1 points.
Colorado: Sen. Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)
Sen. Udall’s approval ratings have dropped with the President’s, and Cory Gardner is a rising star within the Republican Party. Fivethirtyeight.com polling has Garnder ahead by 1.9 points.
Georgia: David Perdue (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D)
Georgia leans right, giving Perdue an edge, but Democrats in the state are excited about Nunn’s chances of ending the party’s 14-year dry spell in the Senate. Fivethirtyeight.com polling has Perdue ahead by 1.2 points.
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R)
Looking to fill the open seat left by Sen. Tom Harkin, democrats settled on Rep. Braley (whose campaign has been beset by gaffes), and republicans chose state Sen. Ernst (while some hold reservations about her ability in the seat). Fivethirtyeight.com polling has Ernst ahead by 1.2 points.
Kansas: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) vs. Greg Orman (I)
Kansas is a red state, but Orman running as an independent has led to a stiff head-to-head polling battle between the two. Fivethirtyeight.com polling has Orman ahead by 0.2 points.
Also…
Top sites to view viewing election results and the latest polling information on the 2014 midterm elections: